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	<title>ARMELOPOST &#187; IMF</title>
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	<description>My Cameroon Focused take on Finance &#38; Technology in the Developing World.</description>
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		<title>ARMELOPOST &#187; IMF</title>
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		<title>Monetizing Remittances in Africa</title>
		<link>http://armelopost.wordpress.com/2009/06/03/monetizing-remittances-in-africa/</link>
		<comments>http://armelopost.wordpress.com/2009/06/03/monetizing-remittances-in-africa/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 03 Jun 2009 07:28:44 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Armel</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Africa 2.0]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Emerging Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Personal Finance]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[cameroon]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Remittance]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Foreign Aid]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[IMF]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[World Bank]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[African Development Bank]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[LMD]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Le Monde Diplomatique]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bretton Woods institutions]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The national bank of Ghana]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Western Union]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[OECD]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[African Debt Burden]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Poverty Eradication]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Money Gram]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Monetizing Remittances]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Diaspora business]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://armelopost.wordpress.com/?p=824</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[                       
Instead of questioning the possibility,  what if we were to come up with a viable method of monetizing on the remittances inflows ?
How to channel the remittances and their regularity trough the formal financial sector in a way that would benefit both participating Financial Institutions (F.I) and the receivers on the local level?
Daily living expenses can take up [...]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=armelopost.wordpress.com&blog=2987934&post=824&subd=armelopost&ref=&feed=1" />]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class='snap_preview'><br /><p>                       <img class="alignnone size-medium wp-image-826" title="Remittance" src="http://armelopost.files.wordpress.com/2009/06/remittance.jpg?w=194&#038;h=300" alt="Remittance" width="194" height="300" /></p>
<p><strong><span style="color:#99cc00;">Instead of questioning the possibility,  what if we were to come up with a viable method of monetizing on the remittances inflows ?</span></strong></p>
<p>How to channel the remittances and their regularity trough the formal financial sector in a way that would benefit both participating Financial Institutions (F.I) and the receivers on the local level?</p>
<p>Daily living expenses can take up 75 to 80% of remittances in some areas regardless of government assistance level. Let&#8217;s not forget that according to <a href="http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2007/06/gupta.htm" target="_blank">official reports</a>, this money is a more reliable source of finance than private sector investment or even official development aid. F.I in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are opening more branches than ever in the past and most of those are primarily dedicated to transferring funds. But so far, neither the senders nor the receivers have been offered  a financial product that could capitalize on this massive flow of cash and benefit both.</p>
<p>That&#8217;s what my focus is going to be for a while and any tips or/and (free) contributions are welcome.</p>
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		<title>Africa’s Imported Wealth</title>
		<link>http://armelopost.wordpress.com/2009/01/20/africa%e2%80%99s-imported-wealth/</link>
		<comments>http://armelopost.wordpress.com/2009/01/20/africa%e2%80%99s-imported-wealth/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 20 Jan 2009 05:45:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Armel</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Africa 2.0]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Emerging Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[cameroon]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Remittance]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Foreign Aid]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[IMF]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[World Bank]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[African Development Bank]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[LMD]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Le Monde Diplomatique]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bretton Woods institutions]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The national bank of Ghana]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Western Union]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[OECD]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[African Debt Burden]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Poverty Eradication]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Money Gram]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://armelopost.wordpress.com/?p=716</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[                 
A must read argument ( from Le Monde Diplomatique ) on the impact of remittance from the African Diaspora. But this is not just another reminder of it&#8217;s importance, actually it explores the limited impact and sometimes disruptions of remittance on African economies.
In any African country, “human capital is much more valuable than financial capital,” says Ravinder [...]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=armelopost.wordpress.com&blog=2987934&post=716&subd=armelopost&ref=&feed=1" />]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class='snap_preview'><br /><p><strong>                 <img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-717" title="remittance" src="http://armelopost.files.wordpress.com/2009/01/remittance.jpg?w=299&#038;h=198" alt="remittance" width="299" height="198" /></strong></p>
<p><strong>A must read argument ( from <a href="http://mondediplo.com/" target="_blank">Le Monde Diplomatique </a>) on the impact of remittance from the African Diaspora. But this is not just another reminder of it&#8217;s importance, actually it explores the limited impact and sometimes disruptions of remittance on African economies.</strong></p>
<p>In any African country, “human capital is much more valuable than financial capital,” says Ravinder Rena of the Eritrea Institute of Technology, “because it is only a nation’s human capital that can be converted into real wealth. Given the status quo, Africa would stay poor even if we were to send all the money in the world there”.  At present, the world’s 200 million migrants send home more than $300bn every year; African migrants send $20bn, and the remittance flow to Africa has increased by 55% since 2000.<span id="more-716"></span></p>
<div class="crayon article-texte-5237 texte">
<p>The Bretton Woods institutions (the IMF and World Bank) and western governments are interested in these Africa-bound billions. According to many official reports, this money is a more reliable source of finance than private sector investment or even official development aid – and, for some African countries, remittances are the equivalent of 750% of foreign aid.</p>
<p>The money sent home by Cape Verde’s diaspora provides 25% of its economic activity. The national bank of Ghana estimates that remittances home equal 20% of the value of its exports. These migrants may not have travelled far: 30% of Lesotho’s gross domestic product comes from nationals working in neighbouring South Africa (the chief destination for inter-African migration).</p>
<p>The phenomenon is most clearly seen in Nigeria, home to the continent’s best and worst. One in five African migrants is from Nigeria. They lead a commercial and entrepreneurial network from São Paolo to Houston, London to Dubai, Delhi to Hamburg. In the last decade, Nigerians living abroad have sent $28bn to family and business associates back home. In 2007 more than $3bn was wired home, according to the World Bank. Nigeria receives 30% of the funds transferred via Western Union in sub-Saharan Africa.</p>
<p> </p>
<p>First Bank, which holds the Western Union franchise in Nigeria, has opened more than 200 agencies there, dedicated primarily to transferring funds. “Business is hectic from the moment we open in the morning to the moment we close,” says Bola Adebanjo, a branch manager. “It is definitely our bank’s principal activity.” Keen to mine this, other Nigerian banks have teamed up with money transfer companies, as the United Bank for Africa and the US company MoneyGram did in 2007.</p>
<h3>A collective strategy</h3>
<p>“Africa must develop a collective strategy for engaging the diaspora [and] Nigeria has a special role to play in this enterprise,” says the former US ambassador to Nigeria, Howard Jeter. “There is a wealth of financial, technical and intellectual expertise in the diaspora. Africa needs to exploit these human and material resources to help tackle the challenges of development, environmental degradation, food security, energy supply, HIV/AIDS and equitable economic growth”. The message is clear – that migrant workers can best help their home countries. But the West, which has the wages of these workers circulating through its banks, makes countries pay for their own development and pockets a percentage.</p>
<p>A joint report by the African Development Bank (ADB) and the French finance ministry published in January 2008 studied five countries “that share strong historic and migratory links with a developed country – France.” The survey of 2,000 African households, which looked at Senegal, Mali and the Comoros among others, found that in 2005, $600m had been sent in remittances to Senegal (19% of GDP and 218% of ODA). Mali received $394m (11% GDP, 79% ODA) and the Comoros $94m (24% GDP, 346% ODA). Households that got the money had a higher standard of living than the national average.</p>
<p>But do these remittances have any real impact at the macro economic level? The renewed interest in African remittances obscures a fact obvious to Jean-Pierre Garson, a migration specialist at the OECD (Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development): “Their impact on development is unclear, especially if one considers the loss of manpower that emigration means for these countries.” Remittances do help to lift those left at home out of extreme poverty. But they also foster a state of dependency. Only a small proportion of these funds goes into wealth-generating activities. According to Ravinder Rena: “Remittances fail to enhance development because they are not spent on investment goods but mostly spent on unproductive purposes – housing, land purchase, transport, repayment of debt, or to a smaller degree wasted on conspicuous consumption, or saved as insurance and old age pension funds”.</p>
<p>Daily living expenses can take up 75 to 80% of remittances and the rest goes towards the dream goal of building a house. In Ghana this feeds property speculation, according to researchers: “Purchases by emigrant workers cause prices to spiral and means local people with modest means have less access to property&#8230; landlords are more inclined to sell to those living abroad than to locals, especially since migrants can pay higher prices, and in cash”.</p>
<h3>Productive use of money</h3>
<p>Redirecting remittance funds towards long-term investment projects, encouraging a “more productive” use of this money, is one of the declared aims of France’s new development and immigration policies. The French government believes channelling remittance funds into projects in health, education and business will encourage would-be immigrants to stay at home (an objective of France’s July 2006 immigration law). Savings banks will offer a special “co-development savings account” benefiting from a 25% tax break, open to all immigrants with a French residence permit who want to invest in their home countries – starting a new business, reviving an old one or buying one out, acquiring premises, investing in the rental market, or micro-finance. Another initiative, the co-development savings book, will “allow immigrants to set up a savings account, on which they will enjoy tax relief if they use the funds for investment purposes”.</p>
<p>Armand Adotevi, a legal expert from Benin, mocks the duplicity of the authors of these proposals: “They realise there is a bonanza to be reaped and invested for the short or medium term, for the benefit of the French economy. They try to con us with talk of tax exemption, and doubling or tripling of interest accrued on savings, and lecture us on what is good for us. In this way they circumvent their own responsibilities for aid and development. Have you ever seen African governments telling private European citizens, operating legally in Africa, how they should spend the substantial profits they repatriate to Europe?”</p>
<p>These proposals perpetuate the inequalities of the global financial system, while providing an excuse to those who won’t fund development aid. They free international financial institutions and the dominant powers from responsibility for the world’s ills by placing the burden on the poor. Poverty will not be eradicated by the remittances of migrant workers, merely reduced. And the financial crisis may sharply reduce remittances anyway.</p>
<div>
<p>By <span class="artauteur">Anne-Cécile Robert</span> and <span class="artauteur">Jean-Christophe Servant</span></div>
</div>
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		<title>IMF: Dismal Economic Performance for Cameroon in 2009</title>
		<link>http://armelopost.wordpress.com/2008/10/28/imf-dismal-economic-performance-for-cameroon-in-2009/</link>
		<comments>http://armelopost.wordpress.com/2008/10/28/imf-dismal-economic-performance-for-cameroon-in-2009/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 28 Oct 2008 05:53:30 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Armel</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Personal Finance]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[cameroon]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Cameroon Economic performance]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Cameroon finance]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Cameroon Inflation Crisis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Crise financiere]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[IMF]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://armelopost.wordpress.com/?p=607</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[                             
The International Monetary Fund has, in its regional economic outlook report, projected a dismal economic performance for Cameroon in 2009
IMF officials, projects that in 2009; Cameroon would record an unenviable 0.5 percent in its trade balance dropping from 3.3 percent this year. Real per capita growth for Cameroon in 2009 would be [...]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=armelopost.wordpress.com&blog=2987934&post=607&subd=armelopost&ref=&feed=1" />]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class='snap_preview'><br /><p>                 <a href="http://armelopost.files.wordpress.com/2008/10/imf_logo.jpg"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-608" src="http://armelopost.files.wordpress.com/2008/10/imf_logo.jpg?w=150&#038;h=180" alt="" width="150" height="180" /></a>            <a href="http://armelopost.files.wordpress.com/2008/10/cameroon-flag1.jpg"><img class="alignnone size-medium wp-image-610" src="http://armelopost.files.wordpress.com/2008/10/cameroon-flag1.jpg?w=200&#038;h=181" alt="" width="200" height="181" /></a></p>
<p><strong><a href="http://allafrica.com/stories/200810271818.html" target="_blank">The International Monetary Fund has, in its regional economic outlook report, projected a dismal economic performance for Cameroon in 2009</a></strong></p>
<p><strong>IMF officials, projects that in 2009; Cameroon would record an unenviable 0.5 percent in its trade balance dropping from 3.3 percent this year. Real per capita growth for Cameroon in 2009 would be 1.7 percent, an insignificant increase of 0.7 percent from the 2008 projection.</strong></p>
<p><strong>But the current financial crisis is not affecting the economies in the region to the same degree. The IMF Deputy Director of African Department, Benedict Vibe Christensen, emphasised that growth in sub-Saharan Africa, estimated at 6 percent, even in the face of the financial crisis, is one of the highest, with Cameroon registering 4.3 percent.</strong></p>
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		<title>Decoupling Theory: Is It Over ?</title>
		<link>http://armelopost.wordpress.com/2008/10/15/decoupling-theory-is-it-over/</link>
		<comments>http://armelopost.wordpress.com/2008/10/15/decoupling-theory-is-it-over/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 15 Oct 2008 08:32:54 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Armel</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Africa 2.0]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Emerging Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Personal Finance]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[cameroon]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Decoupling theory Africa]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://armelopost.wordpress.com/?p=591</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[                              
The IMF trough Dominique Strauss-Kahn  said some time ago that decoupling theories wouldn&#8217;t work. If the assessment was made after analyzing the curve of the downturn this year, I think that&#8217;s an obvious conclusion to make in the face of a recession in the West.
I think decoupling as I advocated it here works as another [...]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=armelopost.wordpress.com&blog=2987934&post=591&subd=armelopost&ref=&feed=1" />]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class='snap_preview'><br /><p>                              <a href="http://armelopost.files.wordpress.com/2008/10/wall-street_bullish.jpg"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-592" title="wall-street_bullish" src="http://armelopost.files.wordpress.com/2008/10/wall-street_bullish.jpg?w=300&#038;h=300" alt="" width="300" height="300" /></a></p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.imf.org/external/index.htm" target="_blank">IMF</a> trough <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dominique_Strauss-Kahn" target="_blank">Dominique Strauss-Kahn </a> said some time ago that <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUSL0634614420080406?pageNumber=1&amp;virtualBrandChannel=0" target="_blank">decoupling theories wouldn&#8217;t work</a>. If the assessment was made after analyzing the curve of the downturn this year, I think that&#8217;s an obvious conclusion to make in the face of a recession in the West.</p>
<p>I think decoupling as I advocated it <a href="http://armelopost.wordpress.com/2008/04/19/the-decoupling-theory-and-africa/" target="_blank">here</a> works as another diversification strategy during slowing growth or relative stagnation. But the idea that Decoupling was going to continue to provide the same returns on equity (on a strict % basis) during periods of recession or depression in the US &amp; Europe, is simply not feasible to begin with. As we know during hard times like these, the access to credit and capital becomes expensive and by simple math, given the expected lower growth out of emerging markets, it wouldn&#8217;t make sense to promote an all out Decoupling strategy in these conditions.</p>
<p>So i agree with <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dominique_Strauss-Kahn" target="_blank">DSK</a> and <a href="http://www.mootbox.com/?p=661" target="_blank">OZ</a> for now, let&#8217;s just say it&#8217;s a wrap until the next Bull period when the markets once again want to balance risk and diversify through emerging economies. But how long before that happens again?</p>
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		<title>CAMEROON: Hundreds of Billions cfa NEEDED !!!</title>
		<link>http://armelopost.wordpress.com/2008/04/03/cameroon-hundred-of-billions-cfa-needed/</link>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 03 Apr 2008 05:02:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Armel</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Emerging Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Personal Finance]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[cameroon]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Cameroon Inflation Crisis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Food Crisis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[IMF]]></category>

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I recently wrote this about the Financial Crisis facing the Cameroon Government:  
Where exactly is the money Paul Biya promised is going to come from? We heard time and time again the Economy and Finances Ministry come out and state that it was virtually impossible (Currently) to raise the Gov’t workers salaries based on the numbers at their disposal. Essimi [...]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=armelopost.wordpress.com&blog=2987934&post=128&subd=armelopost&ref=&feed=1" />]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class='snap_preview'><br /><p><strong>                   <a title="direction-des-impots-yaounde.jpg" href="http://armelopost.files.wordpress.com/2008/04/direction-des-impots-yaounde.jpg"><img style="width:348px;height:158px;" src="http://armelopost.files.wordpress.com/2008/04/direction-des-impots-yaounde.jpg?w=340&#038;h=245" alt="direction-des-impots-yaounde.jpg" width="340" height="245" /></a> </strong></p>
<p><strong><span style="color:#99cc00;">I recently wrote this about the Financial Crisis facing the Cameroon Government:</span></strong> <em> </em></p>
<p><em>Where exactly is the money Paul Biya promised is going to come from? We heard time and time again the Economy and Finances Ministry come out and state that it was virtually impossible (Currently) to raise the Gov’t workers salaries based on the numbers at their disposal. Essimi Menye told the parliament on two different occasions that it was going to take some time and other adjustments, if there was to be any kind of increase of gov’t spending on payroll.</em></p>
<p><em>But starting April 1st, housing allowance for State employees will also be raised,<strong> </strong>customs duties will be suspended on some imported basic commodities like fish, milk, rice, flour and wheat. In addition, the customs duty on imported cement and clinker will be reduced. All of it at the same time! How can all this drastic reduction in gov’t revenues be implemented while raising the State expenditures?                                              <span style="color:#ff0000;"> </span></em></p>
<p><em>As in Accounting ”…Everything should be SQUARE..”: if the annual budget has already been allocated, where will they find the resources to offset this additional spending that was not accounted for -at the time the annual budget was voted- to begin with? It’s all good news, but as we should remember, this square has to be closed somewhere.</em></p>
<p><em>The actors of the private sector should be nervous right now. Because it would not be surprising to see a series of raises in taxes. They might do it trough the TVA, the Corporate Tax, the Revenue Tax, the Income Tax etc.. Let’s just hope the local business men &amp; entrepreneurs won’t have to foot the bill for this stunt.</em></p>
<p>It now appears that in order to finance all these extra expenditures, the Gov&#8217;t need an <strong>additional 110 billions cfa !!</strong> <a href="http://fr.allafrica.com/stories/200803280809.html" target="_blank">The Prime Minister even suspended the purchase of service vehicles </a>in the State account. But that still won&#8217;t be enough ! There has to be another way to compensate for those billions. In the previous post, I said that the money might possibly come from additional taxes on local businesses or revenue taxes.</p>
<p>Someone sent me the link to this <a href="http://www.jeuneafrique.com/jeune_afrique/article_jeune_afrique.asp?art_cle=LIN16038dominnhakss0" target="_blank">interview of the Head of the IMF Dominique Strauss-Kahn </a>that sort of confirm that view. In the interview, the Top gun at the IMF says he believes that in case of a crisis -like this one- , while a country can abolish import duties on essential commodities such as rice, flour etc&#8230;(like Cameroon did), they compensate for the lost revenues by raising taxes on local merchants and businesses.</p>
<p>Will Cameroon prove the IMF wrong this time??</p>
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