Posted by: Armel | July 6, 2009

Leap Towards a Scientific Service Industry

                                 Algorithm

 

African technological institutes have more to gain from the worldwide turn towards services driven economies.

Given their legacy in math and sciences, technical institutes could easily apply that knowledge and develop a scientific approach to the service industries.

This implies a move towards sophisticated technological support for all customer service focused jobs. Although in the past, business owner did not need to use an optimizing software application to increase efficiency, now is the time to show and prove how the scientific method applied to abstract notions such as services can improve revenues and profit margins.

Nowadays, with the service sector as large and growing as it is, the “services science” is coming along as a way out of stagnation for graduates currently out of job in their field of choice. Using algorithms and computer programs for the service sectors could generate a stream of needed jobs among the flood of unemployed but yet educated youth.

Posted by: Armel | July 5, 2009

Le Cameroun face à la crise alimentaire

 

s/ce:   www.euronews.net

Posted by: Armel | June 3, 2009

Monetizing Remittances in Africa

                       Remittance

Instead of questioning the possibility,  what if we were to come up with a viable method of monetizing on the remittances inflows ?

How to channel the remittances and their regularity trough the formal financial sector in a way that would benefit both participating Financial Institutions (F.I) and the receivers on the local level?

Daily living expenses can take up 75 to 80% of remittances in some areas regardless of government assistance level. Let’s not forget that according to official reports, this money is a more reliable source of finance than private sector investment or even official development aid. F.I in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are opening more branches than ever in the past and most of those are primarily dedicated to transferring funds. But so far, neither the senders nor the receivers have been offered  a financial product that could capitalize on this massive flow of cash and benefit both.

That’s what my focus is going to be for a while and any tips or/and (free) contributions are welcome.

Posted by: Armel | May 28, 2009

Douala Stock Exchange means NO Exchange

                              DSX

IS IT POSSIBLE AT THIS POINT TO EXPECT ANYTHING OUT OF THE DOUALA STOCK EXCHANCE (DSX) ?

I’ve already said on here what I think about the DSX, but now I just don’t know how much longer should people wait for this thing to blow.

Either the Daily trading reports posted on the website are wrong, or the administrators don’t care anymore about informing the public of activities at the exchange. Either way, it’s been almost a year since shares were traded (June 2008) or so it seems. Honestly, I really hope that trading was halted indefinetely pending some upgrade or revamp of some sorts. Otherwise, this is already dead in the water !

Posted by: Armel | May 15, 2009

Are African Businesses Invisible ?

                                        forbes

Howcome prominent African businesses still lack the visibility and notoriety enjoyed by other emerging markets companies in India, China, Russia and South America ?

Not for once I am pretending that those economies are equal or similar. The point I’m making here is that when looking at the Forbes Global 2000 list of companies from all over the World. In 2008, their ranking did not include any Sub-Saharan African Country while a couple of them for example, based on the same measurement metrics could have easily made the list in front of many Chinese, U.S, Eastern- Europe, South American, Indian, and Middle Eastern corporations. This year, only 3 Nigerian companies made the list (all Banks).

With the exception of  a few companies in North Africa (Egypt and Morocco), and some others in South Africa, it seems that African Companies continue to remain below the radar when it comes to business media publications such as Forbes. With visibility comes better financing terms and access to needed capital, which is why it is important to showcase those industries and compare them to their peers. But the ranking order can not be considered to be accurate if qualifying companies are simply ignored despite their financial year-end results.

The metrics used for the ranking are on the basis of revenues, assets and market value. With revenues being the most prominent criteria, I have a hard time understanding why are so many large African corporations bypassed by smaller Chinese and US companies with lower annual sales and market values. In 2008, more than 93 African companies with annual revenues over $1 billion were absent from the Forbes ranking. Moreover, an additional batch of 20 companies with over $750 Millions in revenues could and should have been included in that ranking. But just as in the past decade, the darlings are still East Asian, Mid-East, South American and Chinese companies whose revenue sometimes is well below that level.

Are African businesses that invisible ? Really!

Posted by: Armel | May 1, 2009

TELECOMS & AFRICA:The Fix is in

               mobile-phone-africa

“Subprime” Over charging  is the bread and butter of Telecom Companies  in Africa.

There is a research that basically confirmed with factual data what we’ve been saying on Armelopost for a while now. The project was conducted by RIA (Research ICT Africa) a network of Universities and Research Institutions from 19 African Countries. They used data representative of over 17 countries to analyze Mobile Telephony Access and usage in Africa.

By looking at the entire project, there are many conclusions you can draw including those already found by the researchers. I was particularly interested on the different results on Cameroon  because I can’t speak with certainty about the economic balance in other African countries except in general terms. What this research confirmed that is worth noting is that the lower class and the poor continue to be the bread and butter of companies operating in essential sectors .

Believe it or not, Mobile Telephone expenses are now an integral part of the budget of most Africans. But if we are to believe the data out of MTN and ORANGEfor example, the vast majority of new accounts are prepaid SIM cards with the highest per minute rates on calls in Cameroon. It’s practically impossible for people to sign up for longer contracts (crazy requirements!) and spend less on phone calls like the upper class is allowed to do.

Overall, it’s very simple if you ask me, just as Digicel made huge profits in the poorest country of the Western Hemisphere, poor people remain the bread and butter of the telecoms industry in Africa no matter how you look at it. Contrary to perceived assumptions, as people income rise, their Mobile Phone expenditure does not increase accordingly, hence my earlier conclusion.

It doesn’t end there, if you listen or read the 2009 guidance from global phone operators and handset makers after their quarterly reports, they continue to look towards Emerging Markets (Asia, Mid-East, Africa) for any growth. That growth is only coming from lower or poor households since they are the category fueling the current subscribers boom.

The only difference between the higher rates being charged to sub-prime customers in the mortgage and credit card industries and most African (Cameroon for instance) mobile phone subscribers is that there is no premise on which to judge the credit rating of the latter. Between those prepaid customers, a lot more could have qualified for lower fees and handset buy-in plans, but those are so far reserved only to the well-off minority.

 

Research ICT Africa PDF (courtesy of Hash)

Posted by: Armel | April 25, 2009

STRESS TESTING=NO STRESS !

 

stress-test

SHOULD WE BELIEVE IN THE RESULTS OF THE STRESS TESTS ?

The so called “Stress Tests” were supposed to check the stability of major Financial Institutions (F.I) in the face of a deepening domestic crisis. This was an exercise where dark scenarios borrowed from economists and their future projections data, were used to estimate the potential losses these financial institution might incur. Based on those results, the regulators were going to either require more capital from the FI, provide further access to the Tarp or extend their access to different  short term funding windows.

After all the hype about what to expect, the results just proved to be as illogical as the publication of the report on starting such a process. If the intent was to test the viability of F.I in the face of pressure from shareholders and short sellers, it means that the process couldn’t possibly be legitimate since the last thing the regulators wanted was to contribute to another Bear Stearns.

Did the street actually hoped that the Regulators would come out and commit systemic suicide by exposing the risk and potential losses  Financial Institutions, might encounter? Doing so would have defeated the entire purpose of all the programs launched to mitigate their exposure to systemic risk.

In the end, the published results will be full of double-entendre and provide alternatives in the place of worries and warnings. And the reasons why it wouldn’t be otherwise are obvious: We don’t need more STRESS !

Posted by: Armel | March 24, 2009

CAMEROON: BICEC BANK Allows Payment Convergence

                                       e-pay-box

BICEC BANK LATEST MOVE MAY SOLVE THE ELECTRONIC PAYMENT SHUFFLE IN CAMEROON

E PAY BOX is the electronic payment program launched by Bicec Bank that currently allows merchants to accept payment from customers using any Visa Card. Although this is not a first in the country, it is groundbreaking because the payment terminals are offered by the bank provided some conditions are met (IE:opening a business account). Prior to this launch, local shop owners and hotels had to choose which terminal to choose depending on the initial cost required by the Financial Institution. Some terminals were not compatible with other Bank’s or competing payment systems available in the country. Now, it seems that if the telecoms line cost issue could be set to an affordable level, E-Pay Boxes should be widely available in the entire country.

Afriland First Bank’s I-Card was the most promoted for a couple of years and gained some market share because of it’s high use during business transactions between suppliers and retailers.

Now, it looks plausible that all other banks that offer Visa debit cards but haven’t had any success convincing retailers to adopt this method of payment, will either join Bicec Bank Network for a fee or develop their own Network.  In the end, the transfer of proceeds or funds should be integrated trough the Visa settlement system.

In the short term, Bicec Bank should see an increase in their net deposit base because of the jump in new business accounts.

Posted by: Armel | March 6, 2009

ADBOULAYE WADE’s Bouquet to OBAMA

                                              A Bouquet for OBAMA
by Abdoulaye Wade President of the Republic of Senegal

 

As the president of the Dominican Republic affirmed at the UN General Assembly, citizens of the South have a duty to be part of the current reflection and debate on a new world governance.  In this spirit, I have offered U.S President Barack Obama a “bouquet of ideas” on our most urgent economic crises.

 

International monetary system

We need leadership that will impress upon the world’s economy a global evolutionary order – but one that does not leave behind the non-developed remain the international monetary benchmark (remaining unpegged to gold)
 while being held to strict rules of monetary discipline.

 

The US dollar should be “overvalued” by international consensus (or at least by contries with major currencies who are willing to accept certain adjustment anticipates the eventual correction of the euro.

 

In order to avoid an additional burden on debtors in dollars, the volume of debts of governments and companies should be reduced in the same proportion.  The differential can be cleared by the amount of dollars freed up by deflation, or directed to development policy.

 

The quota allocation system for capital fund constitution should be maintained but not proportionally to the wealth of member states.  The system should take into account the economic duality of our world by allocating half or two thirds to rich countries and the complement to developing nations.

 

An additional issue of SDR (Special Drawing Rights) specifically for Africa, should be created  in order to finance infrastructure, education, health and ICT’s exclusively.  Africa must take charge of the financing of all other economic sectors, primarily by opening up widely to the private sector.

 

Strategic position of Africa

Africa offers a unique and strategic solution for avoiding the recurrence of the global economic crises.  Africa could absorb a significant part of the massive speculative capital mainly responsible for inflation as recently noted in the soaring prices of oil and agricultural products.

 

Exceptionally endowed with natural and human resources, Africa should be developed briskly following the 19th century American model by opening up to private capital, specifically the scientific community devoted to the economic levers within a newly-created continental organization, namely the United States of Africa.

 

President Abdoulaye Wade

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