Malgré  les apparences,  l’Afrique Francophone Sud-Saharienne continue d’ étaler ses limites aux plus hauts niveaux.

Apres y avoir été contrainte par le FMI, la Banque des Etats de L’afrique Centrale, s’est finalement decider à publier un rapport non-exhaustif sur les pratiques et détournements au sein de l’organe responsable de l’orientation  financiere et monétaire dans la sous-region. 

En lisant quelques lignes de ce rapport émis en collaboration avec le cabinet Mazars, on approche la crise cardiaque tant les malversations sont énormes et simplistes à la fois. Comment comprendre que l’ institution faîtière censée controler et fixer les regles du jeu économique et financier soit si incapable de verifier l’application des normes comptables les plus élémentaires ?

Si aujourd’hui il est possible d’opérer avec autant de légèreté au sein d’une Banque Centrale, il faut bien se rendre à l’evidence que celle ci est absolument indigne de son statut d’organe régulateur et statutaire !

This is an Embarassment!

Extraits du rapport sur les detournements qui s’elevent jusqu’ici a 16,54 milliards de francs cfa

La colonisation ou encore la naissance des plus grands groupes industriels Français

 

      

 

The noticed inflow of  fresh foreign investment into emerging markets, should raise growth prospects in Frontier Markets in Sub-Saharan Africa.

According to recent published data, foreign investments into emerging markets are reaching record levels unseen in 25 years. This resurgence of foreign capital into developing economies pushed the brazilian government to create a new 2% tax on these foreign capital inflows. Although this rule was deemed necessary to halt the rise of the local currency (Real), it’s nonetheless unprecedented for emerging countries to pass such precautionary measures.

On the flip side, once the valuation of local investments in Brazil, China, and South Africa can no longer sustain this continued flow of capital, the underlying assets would need to expand beyond their traditional borders into frontier markets (for revenues). When all is said and done, Frontier Markets will represent the only untapped source of  potential growth sought after by investors, and it might take diversification & expansionist strategies by emerging markets - business leaders - to get there.

  

 

Bank Regulators in Africa in the wake of the financial meltdown: When Ignorance is Bliss.

While answering questions from a panel of journalists about the risk exposure of Financial Institutions (F.I) in Cameroun and Countries of the BEAC region to the financial crisis, the finance minister of Cameroon said with such bravado that the risk was non-existant. He further explained that there was no risk whatsoever because banks in the BEAC zone were not allowed to invest in all those toxic assets that brought major financial institutions down.

However, he failed to mention the exposure of the Central Bank to the same toxic assets that translated in a huge loss in million of Euros. But the explanation given by the Finance Minister was applauded as some kind of foresighting of the upcoming trouble. That type of Monday morning quarterbacking is somewhat intriguing because it makes it seems that  Banks in the BEAC Zone and elsewhere in the SSA region were not allowed to invest in those types of vehicles because the regulating body (COBAC) already knew they were toxic (highly doubtful). Or was it simply because the regulators could not understand them to begin with, since those complex financial instruments required a high level of monitoring and risk assessment structures ?

In hindsight, we can all appreciate financial institutions all over the World that while able to comprehend and have access to some very complex financial instruments, chose very carefully when and what to invest in.  But I cannot co-sign ignorance being used as a sign of wisdom when it’s obvious African F.I didn’t participate in the feast because the regulators couldn’t figure out what the hell was on the menu.

      

 

“..Even as civilisation continues to march on, we need to return to our roots from time to time and ask ourselves whether we are contributing to the happiness of the human race. If we blindly pursue profits to an excessive degree, it results in many things going wrong … Before the crisis, it was said that the profitability of Japanese banks was too low but it is clear -with hindsight- that the profitability of western banks was too high. Financial Innovation is fine as long as it leads to greater social welfare, but financial institutions must always remember their roots as providers of security in the economic infracstructure…”

NOBUO KUROYANAGI Head of MUFJ Financial Group: the largest bank in Japan

 

FT , STR/AFP/Getty Images

                         

 

One of the biggest deal  in the Telecoms sector between MTN and BHARTI-AIRTEL was called off for the second time !

If the M&A Operation had gone through, it would have catapulted Bharti Airtel to become the third largest telecom services provider spanning 20 countries and 200 million subscribers globally. MTN is leading the pack in the Sub-Saharan Africa region and would have expanded its reach to Asia thanks to tie-ins via Airtel. But, it has been said that the South African Government did not want to give away such a flagship Iconic company. MTN represents way too much for Pretoria, and forking over its control to Bharti would leave a bad taste no matter the exchanged price.

With that said, it’s not completely over.. Something might pop again soon between these two.

                                    

After saying that I personally believed Digital Mapping was a gold mine for African web app developers, because of the variety of revenues streams that could be derived from it, here come NODIS  from Alain Nono and Christian Nono in Cameroon. Along the different services they have available, an early development of a GPS customized with local street maps  for Douala and Yaoundé.

I’m glad to find out about this development; these guys are making it happen with no help whatsoever from the Authorities. There are unlimited possibilities once the streets mapping stage is completed. Although this will probably be more complex since the streets are not numbered nor registered in public databases, the information will have to be manually entered.

                              

Big Deal en préparation qui risque bouleverser le paysage du marché télécoms

Le secteur des télécommunications dans les pays émergents continue à faire parler de lui avec une opération d’une toute autre ampleur en préparation depuis plus d’un an. L’indien Bharti Airtel et le sud-africain MTN Group se seraient accordés pour des prises de participation croisées, prélude à une fusion, selon Bloomberg news. Bharti prendrait 49% de MTN pour 14 Milliards de Dollars, tandis que MTN investirait 10 Milliards de dollars dans Bharti pour 33% des parts. 

Post orginal de Mai 2008 sur le sujet:

AIRTEL le plus grand operateur télécom en Inde veut profiter de la croissance sur le marché Africain en passant par MTN. MTN détient a ce jour 62millions d’abonnés sur le continent Africain et le Proche-Orient. Parmi les régions desservies, l’Afrique du Sud, le Nigeria, et le Cameroun sont les pays ou les marges de progression sont les plus elevées.

Dans mon post précedent sur la théorie du DECOUPLAGE, je mentionnais l’interet soudain que representait les acteurs du marché Africain (Sud-Sahara), vis a vis du ralentissement des activités de M&A (Fusions-Acquisitions) aux USA et en Europe continentale. L’apport de 12milliards de Dollars de la banque Goldman Sachs vient confirmer (en quelque sorte) la validité de cet argument

S/ce:  Finance  Plus, Bloomberg News

 

 

Here’s what we know for sure: all economic theories are explained by research studies on market participant’s patterns, and the outcome of every theory clearly set a winning side and a losing counterpart.

If an economic theory that was used and worked elsewhere is the one size fits all “magic fix” to economic growth in every country on this planet, I don’t think we will be where we are at this moment in time.

What if the intricacies of any chosen theory are implicitly designed to have a winner and a loser (obviously right)? In the current environment of global commerce, the rules of the trade are not equal. Those on the good side of the trade, are disproportionately taking benefits from the exchange while those on the bad side, will continue to lose in perpetuity because the winner will continue to set the rules of the game. 

So, the answer could then be how to switch to the other side instead of perfecting concepts designed by the winning side to maintain their position while at the same time, keeping the same at the bottom of the ladder. 

To catch my drift, I recommend reading False Economy: A Surprising Economic History of the World by Alan Beattie and other books on Game Theory and Applied Economics

                        

Après La Guerre des Médicaments 1ère partie, La Guerre des Médicaments en Afrique 2ème partie, voici La Guerre des Médicaments 3ème partie.

La crise financière mondiale bat son plein, les dépenses allouées aux produits pharmaceutiques dit de « bien être » chutent partout dans le monde (principalement aux Etats-Unis). Durant la meme periode, le congrès americain sous l’impulsion du président Obama, prepare un changement dans la législation, visant a réformer radicalement leur systeme de santé largement déficitaire.

L’ industrie pharmaceutique est donc obligée de se replier vers les  produits « traditionels », dans l’espoir de maintenir leur projections de revenus. De Houston à Lausanne, les plus grands groupes pharmaceutiques se rendent bien à l’évidence que le surplus d’offre en médicaments ne pouvant plus être absorbé par les circuits traditionels que sont l’Amerique du Nord et l’Europe de l‘Ouest doit bien s’écouler quelque part.

 C’est ici qu’intervient l’Afrique noire et l’Amerique Latine, qui à cause de leur precarité,  ont depuis longtemps un faible engouement pour les dernieres innovations des laboratoires occidentaux. Cette situation changera dans le court terme, et on notera en Afrique notamment une vague déferlante de délégues médicaux avec les valises remplies de nouveaux produits à proposer aux pharmaciens et médecins du continent. Dans ce jeu de chaises musicales, la concurrence restera concentrée au sommet de la chaine (les fabricants et laboratoires), tandis qu’au niveau local, le status quo sera maintenu puisque les consommateurs seront toujours obligés de subir le diktat de prix fixés par les lobbies et autres Ordres de Pharmaciens. Les populations qui sont les plus concernées, ne pourront donc malheureusement pas tirer avantage de la concurrence entre les nombreux fabricants, meme lorsqu’il s’agit de médicaments à prescription médicale facultative (PMF) vu que la reglementation interdit la libéralisation des prix et concentre la vente entre les mains d’un groupuscule de pharmaciens agrées.

 

Pour en savoir plus, La Guerre des Medicaments I et La Guerre des Medicaments en Afrique II